Islamic insurgency in Mozambique: SADC troops leaving with mixed results
The Southern African Development Community (SADC military mission in Mozambique(Samim, which was deployed on July 15, 2021 to fight the Islamic insurgents terrorising the Northern Cabo Delgado Provincesince 2017, is scheduled to end byJune 2024. Mozambican security forces will then take full responsibility for security.
We asked military science and defence expert Thomas Mandrup, who has published apaperon the situation after a recent ground visit, to evaluate the mission.
Why did the military mission in Mozambique intervene?
The militia insurgency by the group now calling itselfAl Sunnahhad been spreading rapidly in the Cabo Delgado Provincefrom late 2019.
SADC member states had been putting pressure on the Mozambican government to allow a regional military intervention to prevent the insurgency from spreading in the region. Their fear was that Islamic State (Isis, to which the extremists areaffiliated, would get a bridgehead from which they could expand their operations.
More than850,000 civilianshad been forced to flee their homes after violent attacks by the extremists.
Read:Tens of thousands flee Mozambique amid renewed attacks
The insurgency caused the suspension of a$60 billion investmentin a liquefied natural gas project led by multinational energy giantsTotalEnergies,ENIandExxon. The hope had been that the development would drive local, national and regionaleconomic growth.
The SADC decided todeploya combined force of 2,210 troops. The mission is dominated by a South African contingent of 1,495 soldiers.
Other troops come from Botswana, Tanzania, Lesotho, Namibia and Angola.
The thinking was that they would eliminate the Al Sunnah presence in its area of operation.
How successful was the mission? What were the challenges?
The SADC military mission had several main strategic objectives:
-
neutralising the extremists
-
assisting theMozambique Defence Armed Forcesin planning and undertaking operations
-
training and advising the Mozambique forces.
The SADC member states also planned to supplement the military efforts with humanitarian aid and even development projects to sustain the progress made by the mission.
Aninternal assessment reportwas presented at the July 2023 meeting of the then SADC leadership troika (Zambia, Namibia and South Africa.
It concluded that the SADC mission had achieved its objective of reducing the insurgents’ capacity and assisting the Mozambican military. In addition, 570,000 internally displaced people had returned to their homes by August 2023, as thesecurity situation had improved.
Read:Mozambique security forces kill 16 insurgents
However, since the second half of 2023, thenumber of attacks has increased, leading to a rise in the number of displaced people.
Samim has found it difficult to fulfil its mandate of training the Mozambican force because they couldn’t identify their training needs.
The development and humanitarian efforts have been limited at best.
The assessment report also concluded that the mission had suffered because it was never given the capabilities outlined in the initial SADC pre-mission report ofApril 2021.
Firstly, the force was smaller than initially recommended. It never went beyond 2,200, a far cry from the mandated2,900. The mission lacked numbers and capabilities in terms of air, naval and ground assets. Lack of funding was key to the mission’s limited size and capabilities.
Secondly, coordination and joint operations with the Rwandan forces, which had been deployedin July 2021, the SADC force and the Mozambican security forces have been problematic. For example, they had different communication equipment and the soldiers spoke different languages.
Thirdly, intelligence gathering capabilities were weak. Insufficient information before operations commenced increased the danger to troops and civilians.
Fourth, intelligence and operational information was frequently leaked to the extremists.
What lessons can be learnt from the operation?
An outside intervening force must have the full backing of the host nation. And it must understand the area and situation it’s being deployed into. The Mozambican government and military have not always worked with the mission. Seemingly hidden agendas, or different priorities, have hampered the mission.
Read:SADC to provide humanitarian aid to Mozambique IDPs: diplomat
The Mozambican government’s delayed and timid response to the growth of the insurgency from its beginning raises a number of questions:
-
why was its response so slow and insufficient?
-
why did it oppose regional involvement for so long?
-
why has the SADC mission at times found it difficult to strike at the core of the insurgents?
The difficult political situation in the capitalMaputo notably factional battles inside the governingFrelimoand the fallout over the huge 2013-2014Tuna bonds corruption scandal, hampered the mission.
During myrecent fieldworkseveral interviewees even suggested that a faction of Frelimo had at times supported the insurgents.
In addition, strong personal, political and economic interests affected operational realities. Frelimo has strong ties to the region going back to the war of independence against Portugal, and later the civil war between Renamo and Frelimo. The cleavages from the civil war have never been really solved and are still visible.
It was clear that the Mozambican government didn’t have a clear plan to address the many causes of conflict. For example, it did not understand why the insurgency had attracted support from large sections of the local population.
Many people living in Cabo Delgado view the Mozambican state asremoved from their everyday realities. Some even see the government as illegitimate and the cause of their suffering. An effective stabilisation effort needs various interventions – military, socioeconomic and political – to resolve the difficult conditions people are living under.
The SADC mission was starved of the capabilities and numbers needed to be an effective fighting force. The local population considered it less effective than, for instance, the Rwandan force, which was also better equipped and trained.
Read:In Mozambique’s war, allies Rwanda, TZ face some tricky odds
What needs to happen
Insurgency activities are once againon the rise in Cabo Delgado. The risk is that the extremists will once again take a stronger foothold there since the issues that led to the conflict in the first place remain unresolved.
The SADC mission shows how difficult and costly it is to launch and run a large scale military operation, especially if the host government is not taking full ownership and supporting the operation. The SADC operation can only create “space” for the political solutions to be found.
In addition, the Mozambican government and its security force have shown only limited signs of improved capacity. It is uncertain that they are ready to take over the full responsibility for security after June 2024, when the SADC soldiers leave.
ByThomas Mandrup-Associate Professor, Security Institute for Governance and Leadership in Africa (SIGLA, Stellenbosch University